نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد و بیمه دریایی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دریا، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر، خرمشهر، ایران.

2 گروه حمل و نقل دریایی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دریا، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر، خرمشهر، ایران.

چکیده

هدف از ارائه این مقاله، بررسی ارتباط میان متغیرهای رشد اقتصادی، تجارت بین الملل و حمل و نقل محموله از طریق دریاست. داده ­های مورد استفاده، آمار سری زمانی شاخص‌های حمل و نقل و شاخص‌های اقتصادی در بازه زمانی 1357 تا 1397 است که از پایگاه اطلاع رسانی بانک مرکزی تهیه شده است. روش مورد استفاده، معادلات خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیع شده است تا بتوان پویایی‌های درون مدل را کنترل کرد. در یک معادله، عوامل مؤثر بر رشد و در معادله دیگر، عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت بررسی شده است. یافته ­های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که افزایش سرمایه گذاری در حمل و نقل دریایی، افزایش در رشد اقتصادی را همراه داشته و از طرفی، افزایش در ارزش محموله ­های حمل شده از طریق دریا تأثیر معنی‌داری بر افزایش ارزش تجارت بین الملل خواهد داشت. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، پیشنهاد می­ گردد که تجهیزات بندری مربوط به حمل و نقل دریایی افزایش و توسعه داده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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